If This Is True, Then This Other Thing Is Not!

November 15, 2022

Hot off the presses from the National Association of Medicaid Director’s meeting – HHS did not give notice to the states that the public health emergency was going to end, therefore, it will be extended until April!

And, that will contribute additional funds (increased Federal Medicaid match of 6.2%) to the revenue projections for FY23!  Other budget news:

• The projection is that the revenue will be $1,964M above forecast for FY23 and $930M above forecast for FY24 – BUT
• There is a clear concern that we are heading into a recession and “using excess FY2023 revenues for ongoing programs could lead to structural imbalance heading in to the next biennium” 
• In short, the push from the House Appropriations Committee will be to emphasize one-time spending and not commit to spending that will be built into the budget long-term.
• The Medicaid forecast shows a $279.3M savings for FY23 and a modest increase in FY24, however, the bigger issue is next biennium with an additional $150.7M General Fund (GF) needed in FY25.  And there are several factors which may require  additional GF in FY25-26 which are not yet factored in!